Trump claims Iran has “totally agreed” to abandon its nuclear ambitions, pushing odds for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April to 43% YES, up from 28% a week ago.
Traders have interpreted the claim as a step toward diplomatic resolution. The April market sees increased activity, with higher expectations that Trump might offer concessions such as lifting oil sanctions. Volume is $1,864/day in actual USDC, with a $198 cost to move the price 5 points. That’s a thin market where a single large trade could cause significant price swings.
The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market has moved to 24.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago. There’s no direct confirmation from Iran, and with only six days left, the odds remain low.
The broader term structure shows a 21-point jump in odds between April 30 and May 31. Traders appear to be pricing in a potential catalyst within that window, likely tied to ongoing diplomatic talks.
Trump’s statement is a single claim without backing from Iranian authorities or third-party verification. At 36¢, a YES share in the oil sanction relief market pays $1 if Trump agrees to the demands by the end of April, a potential 2.78x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe Trump will follow through with concrete actions in the next two weeks.
Watch for official statements from the White House, Iranian state media, or international intermediaries like Oman that could confirm or contradict Trump’s claim. The next meaningful signal will be any mention of a formalized agreement or concession in the ongoing negotiations.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 43% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 24.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 40.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 55.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 70.5% | — | — | Trade → |
