Trump announced an imminent Iran deal while the Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded. The odds of a permanent peace deal by April 22 sit at 25% YES, up from 12% a week ago.
Market reaction
Trump’s statement pushed odds up across several peace deal markets. The April 22 market is still low at 25%, while the April 30 market climbed to 45%. The biggest gain is in the May 31 market at 62.5%, which implies traders expect something concrete by late spring but not in the next week.
Why it matters
The April 22 market is trading $267,520 in USDC daily, with $16,312 required to shift the odds by 5 points. A recent 4-point spike suggests some volatility, but the small absolute move looks more like tentative repositioning than conviction buying.
The strait is still blockaded and tensions remain high. Trump’s comments could signal a real diplomatic opening or amount to nothing. A YES share at 25¢ pays $1 if a deal is announced, a potential 6.67x return. To justify buying, you’d need to believe a formal announcement comes within six days.
What to watch
Trump’s next Truth Social post or a joint statement from Islamabad. If Pakistan, acting as mediator, confirms progress, expect a sharp move up. The wide gap between the April 22 odds (15%) and the May 31 odds (55%) tells you where traders think the real action is.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 25% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 45% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 62.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 83% | — | — | Trade → |
