Trump called off Kushner and Witkoff’s planned Pakistan visit for Iran peace talks. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market is at 4% YES, down from 10% 24 hours ago.
The cancellation has pushed odds down across related markets. The May 31 market dropped to 26% YES from 38% a day earlier. The June 30 market is at 44%, down from 57% yesterday. The 22-point gap between the April 30 and May 31 contracts suggests traders expect a possible catalyst in that window.
Volume hit $854,504 in USDC over the past 24 hours. Moving the April 30 market by 5 points costs $27,666, which points to real liquidity behind these positions. The largest single move was a 6-point spike at 11:14 AM, likely a large order reacting to the cancellation news.
The trip cancellation points to real diplomatic friction, not noise. Trump pulling the visit implies the US is pressing harder through its Gulf blockade leverage rather than rushing to negotiate. At 4¢, a YES share pays 25x if a deal closes by April 30. That bet requires a diplomatic breakthrough within six days.
Watch for CENTCOM statements or unexpected diplomatic moves. If Pakistan or Iran signals renewed willingness to engage through official channels, odds could shift quickly.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 3.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 27.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 43% | — | — | Trade → |
