Trump announced a fresh diplomatic offer from Iran shortly after canceling a Pakistan meeting. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026 market sits at 3% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
The April 30 peace deal market at 3% YES prices in deep skepticism about any near-term deal. The May 31 market is at 26% YES, and June 30 is at 41.5% YES. The 24-point jump from April to May suggests traders see a catalyst in late spring.
The Iranian demands market on oil sanction relief is at 7% YES, down from 14% yesterday, showing low confidence in Trump agreeing to sanctions relief by end of April. The market is thin, with only $1,944 in actual USDC traded, meaning even small orders can move prices significantly.
The peace deal market has $854,504 in actual USDC volume compared to $7,777 for the Iranian demands market. Moving the peace deal market 5 points requires $27,666, while the demands market needs just $119 to shift the same amount.
Trump’s claim of a fresh offer might suggest U.S. confidence, but without tangible concessions, it amounts to noise. A YES share at 3¢ would pay a 33x return. That bet only makes sense if you believe in a sudden diplomatic breakthrough within days.
Watch for Trump posts on Truth Social or official White House announcements. Any sign of agreement on sanctions or nuclear terms could move these markets fast.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 3.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 27.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 41.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 7% | — | — | Trade → |
