The Trump administration has reclassified state-licensed medical marijuana to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act. The Polymarket contract on weed being rescheduled by December 31 is at 46.2% YES, up from 42% yesterday.
The December 31 contract now trades at 46.2% YES on the weed rescheduling market. The June 30 market sits at 8.5% YES. The 38-point spread between the two contracts suggests traders expect a catalyst later in the year rather than in the near term.
Daily volume is at $6,257 in USDC on the December market. A $2,389 investment moves the price five points, which points to relatively stable pricing. The largest move was a 3-point spike at 1:18 PM.
Reclassification to Schedule III lowers barriers for medical research and brings federal policy closer to existing state practices. Recreational use remains Schedule I. At 46.2%, buying YES at 46¢ pays $1 if rescheduling occurs by year-end, a 2.17x return. The DEA hearing scheduled for June 29 is the next major date on the calendar.
Watch for announcements from the DEA or the Trump administration on expedited hearings. A firm date or rescheduling confirmation could push December odds higher.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 46.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
