A former staffer who accused ex-Rep. Eric Swalwell of rape is now cooperating with the Manhattan DA’s investigation. The market predicting whether Swalwell will be out as a U.S. Representative by May 31 sits at 100% YES.
Swalwell has faced pressure from multiple investigations, and the market on his status by May 31 reflects traders seeing no realistic path for him to remain in office. The accuser’s cooperation with prosecutors adds credibility to the allegations and increases the likelihood of political consequences.
The market shows zero trading volume over the past 24 hours, which means traders treat the outcome as settled. At 100¢, there is no room for new positions unless something drastically changes.
Swalwell’s political support has eroded alongside multiple active investigations. The probability of him staying in office is effectively zero according to the market. At 100%, the contract is functionally closed.
Key signals to watch: official announcements from the U.S. House or Governor Newsom regarding a special election, or confirmation of Swalwell’s resignation. Either would confirm what the market already prices in.
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Eric Swalwell Out As Us Rep May 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
