Reuters reports ten Indian ships have safely crossed the Strait of Hormuz. The market for fewer than ten ships transiting between April 13-19 now sits at 0% YES.
This news effectively resolves the April 19 market as NO. Odds held at 0.4% YES throughout the day, with a brief 2-point spike earlier that quickly faded. Total volume was just $14 in USDC. Fewer than ten ships transiting is off the table.
This crossing matters because it confirms India has secured safe passage through the strait while broader tensions persist. Iran classified India as a “friendly nation,” granting transit rights amid blockades affecting other countries. That said, 19 Indian-bound vessels remain stranded, so the risk picture hasn’t fully cleared. But for non-belligerents, this is a concrete data point showing passage is possible.
For traders, this is a straightforward resolution. Buying YES at under 1¢ offered negligible returns. The market was extremely thin: only $12 was needed to move it 5 points, which tells you nobody had real conviction in a YES outcome.
Watch for further transit reports and any changes in Iran’s posture. Statements from CENTCOM and the IRGC matter here, along with any diplomatic exchanges between India and Iran that could affect future strait access.
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How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 13 19| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 9% | — | — | Trade → |