Prime Minister Keir Starmer is addressing MPs today over the Peter Mandelson security vetting controversy, with the probability of Starmer being ousted by June 30, 2026, at 36% YES, down from 42% yesterday.
Market reaction
The June 30 market dropped 6 points in a day, with traders skeptical that today’s Commons session will produce immediate consequences. The December 31, 2026 market sits at 68.5% YES, suggesting traders price in longer-term risk to Starmer’s position. The 26-point gap between the June 30 and December 31 contracts implies traders expect any potential ousting to come after the summer.
Trading volume hit $16,715 in USDC across Starmer markets in the last 24 hours. The June 30 market requires $3,913 to move odds by 5 percentage points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest single-day move was a 2-point drop at 5:16 PM, likely a reaction to news developments.
Why it matters
An ongoing investigation into the Foreign Office’s vetting process, Mandelson’s resignation, and calls for Starmer’s accountability have all raised the temperature around his leadership. If Starmer were to resign before June 30, buying YES at 36¢ yields a $1 payout, a 2.78x return. But traders would need convincing evidence of imminent leadership change to justify that bet.
What to watch
Starmer’s statements during today’s session and any subsequent reactions from key Labour figures like Angela Rayner or Wes Streeting. A shift in party support or a no-confidence motion could move these markets sharply.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |