SEC Chair Paul Atkins declared an end to the agency’s “regulation through enforcement” approach for cryptocurrencies, while the Polymarket contract for XRP reaching $2.60 by April 30 sits at 1% YES.
Atkins’ statement clarifies that the SEC views most crypto assets as falling outside securities classification, which could reduce legal overhang for XRP specifically. The XRP $2.60 by April 30 market has ticked up on the news. The SEC has also dismissed cases against Coinbase and Binance in recent weeks, consistent with the policy shift Atkins described.
Traders have 12 days left for XRP to reach $2.60. The SEC’s coordination with the CFTC on commodities jurisdiction and the advancement of “Project Crypto,” which would create tailored rules for issuance, custody, and trading, feed into the bullish case. Still, odds at 1% show the market prices this outcome as unlikely within the timeframe.
Trading volume on these XRP contracts is thin. Over the last 24 hours, the market saw $5,991 in combined face value but only $30 in actual USDC traded. The order book is shallow enough that $126 can move the price 5 percentage points, meaning any moderately sized order would cause large swings.
The policy shift could reduce legal uncertainty that has weighed on XRP for years. Buying YES at 1¢ offers a 100x return if XRP hits $2.60 by end of April. The low liquidity cuts both ways: it makes the contract cheap to enter but also means the odds reflect very few informed participants.
Legislative progress on the CLARITY Act or further SEC-CFTC joint guidance could move XRP price and these contracts before the April 30 expiry.
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