SpaceX is hosting Wall Street analyst briefings ahead of a planned late June IPO at a $1.75 trillion valuation. The “Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?” market sits at 72% YES, down from 76% yesterday.
The March 31 market, already low, has effectively confirmed a NO outcome. The June 30 market is where the action is, up from 44% a week ago. The 72-point gap between the April 30 and June 30 contracts suggests traders expect a strong catalyst in that window. The September 30 market holds at 92%, meaning traders see the IPO landing somewhere between June and September.
Daily trading volume for the June 30 market is $5,559 in USDC, with $1,571 needed to shift odds by five points. That’s moderate liquidity: the market is active, but individual trades can still move prices meaningfully. The largest movement yesterday was a 2-point drop at 4:27 PM.
The specificity of the reporting (analyst briefings, a $1.75 trillion target, a late June timeline) points to a genuine shift toward a June IPO rather than speculation. A YES share at 72¢ pays $1 if SpaceX IPOs by June 30, a 1.39x return. For this bet to pay off, SpaceX needs to stick to its timeline without regulatory or market-driven delays.
Watch for SEC filings, particularly a public S-1 announcement, and any official confirmation from Elon Musk. Those are the clearest signals of whether the June timeline holds.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 72.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 92.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 91.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
