Iran is rapidly restocking missile launchers and drones during a two-week ceasefire. With 10 days until the April 22 deadline, the market for an Iranian strike on Israel by April 30 sits at 100% YES.
Market reaction
The Iran military action by April 30 contract hasn’t moved from 100% YES. Iran’s drone and missile replenishment added to the threat picture but changed nothing in the odds. The term structure is flat — traders treat action before April 30 as a certainty.
Why it matters
Volume across all relevant sub-markets: zero face value traded in the last 24 hours. No liquidity and no conviction change among traders. The odds are frozen at the ceiling, which means traders are waiting for concrete moves rather than reacting to intelligence reports.
Context
This report of increased Iranian capabilities doesn’t shift the market because it was already priced in at 100%. The market previously absorbed similar reports, including allegations of US strikes on Iranian vessels. Until actual military action or a definitive diplomatic outcome occurs, the odds have nowhere to go.
What to watch
Today’s talks in Pakistan are the next catalyst. Any extension of the ceasefire or an escalation announcement would matter. A confirmed missile strike or verified military buildup report could affect related contracts with odds below 100%.
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Iran Military Action Against April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 15% | — | — | Trade → |
