Gunvor has warned that a global recession could follow if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another three months, pushing odds on the US recession in 2026 market higher.
Market reaction
Gunvor’s warning has traders reevaluating the likelihood of a US recession. The US recession in 2026 market saw an expected 25% jump in odds tied to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global petroleum flows. That share of supply makes it a direct input to recession modeling.
Why it matters
Brent crude prices have spiked and LNG supplies are disrupted. Europe, Japan, China, and India face possible GDP contractions as a result. The closure has already passed the 30-day mark, and some models now place recession probability above 75%. For traders, buying YES shares at current prices could pay out substantially if a recession is confirmed.
What to watch
No resolution is in sight. The closure’s effect on energy prices and supply chains compounds existing economic weaknesses, making a US recession in 2026 more likely than markets previously priced in.
Watch for official statements from the NBER, the Fed, and major banks. Shifts in economic policy or military developments in the region would move this market. The next major signal is likely to come from GDP reports or employment data that capture the closure’s economic damage.
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Us X Iran Diplomatic Meeting 833| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 15.9% | — | — | Trade → |
