Senator Thom Tillis has dropped his opposition to Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Fed chair. Odds of Warsh being confirmed by May 15 now sit at 88% YES, up from 29% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
Tillis’s block was the main obstacle, and its removal triggered the 59-point jump in the May 15 market. The May 1 market remains at just 2% YES. Traders are pricing in a clear path but a tight timeline: the committee will likely move fast, but not fast enough for May 1. The June 30 confirmation market is at 97%.
Why it matters
The volume tells part of the story. Face value of trades is $75,123, with $19,708 in actual USDC traded. The May 15 market alone accounts for $17,756 in USDC. Moving the price 5 points requires $1,590, which indicates real liquidity rather than thin-book noise.
With Tillis dropping his block, the DOJ inquiry into Powell’s renovations no longer clouds Warsh’s path. Buying YES shares at 88¢ returns $1 upon confirmation by May 15, a 1.14x return.
What to watch
Senate Banking Committee scheduling is the next catalyst. Any DOJ announcements regarding Powell matter too. A committee vote or an official DOJ closure of the renovations inquiry would push these odds higher.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 1.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 15 | 87.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 96.8% | — | — | Trade → |