Wendy Sherman has criticized the current US-Iran situation as “harder, riskier, and strategically misjudged.” The odds for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 now sit at 2.6% YES, down from 7% yesterday.
The market for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 has collapsed. A week ago, odds were at 68%; they’re now at 2.6% with six days left. Over the past 24 hours, the market recorded $107,556 in face value but only $7,699 in actual USDC, a sign that traders are mostly closing positions rather than placing new bets.
The market for no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 has moved in the opposite direction, rising to 14.1% YES from 2% a week ago. That market trades $55,592/day in face value and $6,833/day in actual USDC. It takes only $141 to shift the price 5 points, meaning any headline can move it quickly.
Sherman’s criticism reflects what the markets already price in: hardened positions on both sides and the failed high-level talks in Islamabad. Her view, though influential, doesn’t change the stalemate on the ground. For traders, buying YES at 2.4¢ offers a 38.5x return if a deal is struck by April 30, a long shot given six days and no scheduled negotiations.
Watch for any last-minute moves from major players. A statement from the White House or Iranian leaders could shift these odds. Key events include any announcements from Trump or Vance, and any change in Iran’s negotiating stance.
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Where Will The Next Us Iran Diplomatic Meeting Happen 455| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 14.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.4% | — | — | Trade → |
