Saudi Aramco has prolonged its suspension of LPG deliveries through May, citing structural damage from Iranian attacks. The likelihood of Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30 is at 50% YES, up from 4% just a day ago.
The April 30 market jumped to 50% after news of the delivery suspension. With 6 days until resolution, daily face value trades sit at $13,078, though only $683 in actual USDC has changed hands. Moving the market 5 points costs $970, which points to moderate liquidity.
The 46-point jump from 4% traces directly to the ongoing conflict involving US-Israel joint strikes and Iranian attacks on Saudi infrastructure. Gulf States now face direct threats to their energy assets, and traders are repricing accordingly. The previous largest single move in this market was a 1-point spike.
Buying YES at 50¢ pays 2x if military action occurs by the deadline. The combination of active strikes on Iranian targets and damage to Saudi energy infrastructure gives this market a concrete catalyst, not just speculative drift.
Watch for announcements from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman or CENTCOM regarding military engagement. Statements from either could move this market sharply in either direction.
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