Iran’s internet blackout has now lasted exactly two months, according to Netblocks, and the Polymarket contract on the Iranian regime falling by June 30 has surged to 50% YES, up from 8% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The Iranian regime fall market moved 42.5 percentage points in the June 30 sub-market over the past day. In the Reza Pahlavi entry market, odds for Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 sit at 50% YES. That said, the Pahlavi market is thin: daily volume is just $736 in USDC. The regime fall market trades $35,587 daily, and it takes $16,830 to move the price 5 percentage points. The largest single price movement was a 1-point spike, consistent with cautious, incremental trading rather than a single whale bet.
Why it matters
A two-month internet blackout is an extreme measure even by Iranian standards. Traders are reading the sustained information cutoff as a sign of regime vulnerability, not strength. The 42.5-point jump in a single day, on a market with enough liquidity to resist casual manipulation, suggests real money is moving behind the thesis that the blackout correlates with internal instability.
What to watch
IRGC defections, mass protests in major cities, or diplomatic moves by international actors would each shift these contracts. The gap between the regime fall market’s relatively healthy volume and the Pahlavi market’s thin trading also matters: if the Pahlavi contract starts attracting real capital, it would signal that traders see a specific political transition, not just generic instability.
Trade details
At 50¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, a potential 2x return. Traders betting on regime change are pricing in further escalations or regime fractures within 67 days.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 50.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 50% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 50% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 50.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 51% | — | — | Trade → |
