The Reservists Party is considering an alliance with Benny Gantz’s Blue and White Party to form a Zionist government excluding ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties. The Netanyahu out by June 30 market sits at 5.5% YES.
This potential coalition could weaken Netanyahu’s traditional base, which relies heavily on ultra-Orthodox support. The Netanyahu out by April 30 market sits at 0.6% YES, reflecting deep skepticism about an immediate change. The June 30 market, with 73 days left, shows slightly more interest but remains low at 5.5% YES.
The Reservists Party’s position connects directly to the fight over universal IDF conscription, the issue that led ultra-Orthodox parties to quit Netanyahu’s coalition. Traders appear to price in a longer-term shift while discounting immediate consequences. Low odds across both contracts suggest the market sees Netanyahu’s position as weakened but not yet in danger of collapse before summer.
Combined 24-hour face value volume is $78,323, with actual USDC traded at $1,011. It would take $10,283 to move the June 30 market by 5 points, a relatively thick order book. The largest single move in recent trading was modest, consistent with low conviction about any near-term change in government.
At 5.5¢, a YES share for Netanyahu out by June 30 pays $1 if it resolves, a 18.2x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in a rapid coalition realignment or major legal developments against Netanyahu.
Watch for formal coalition agreements or defections from Netanyahu’s allies, which would move these odds fast. IDF conscription debates and Supreme Court rulings on the issue could also destabilize the current government.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.7% | — | — | Trade → |
