No oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz today, marking a complete closure. The market for fewer than 10 ships transiting between April 13-19 now sits at 0.4% YES.
With the market deadline just a day away, the full closure effectively confirms a YES resolution. Any transits at this point seem unlikely. The UK warship transit market, meanwhile, holds at 8.5% YES, suggesting traders see military intervention as a long shot.
The ship transit market is thinly traded at just $14 in actual USDC, making it sensitive to even small trades. The largest price move was a modest 2-point spike. The warship market has more activity: $1,412 in actual USDC traded daily and $304 needed to move the price by 5 points, pointing to more balanced trader interest on both sides.
The stalled transits add pressure on diplomatic efforts to reopen the strait. War risk insurance premiums have skyrocketed and global oil supply routes are disrupted, raising the economic stakes around any resolution.
Watch for announcements from the UK Ministry of Defence on potential warship deployments or updates from CENTCOM on naval operations in the region. Either could materially shift market odds.
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Us Escorts Commercial Ship Through Hormuz March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 10% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
