Reports of sexual abuse in Iranian prisons have surged following the regime’s crackdown on dissent. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by May 31 sit at 4% YES, down from 5% a day ago.
The June 30 market moved to 8.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday. The 1-point increase came after news of intensified human rights abuses, with 67 days left until resolution.
Trade volumes are mixed. The combined Iranian regime fall markets did $37,360 in actual USDC traded over the last 24 hours, against a face value of $956,969. Order book depth is $7,057 to move 5 percentage points, meaning a few large bets could shift the price significantly.
The surge in reported abuses adds to international pressure and domestic unrest but is not a direct trigger for regime change on its own. At 8¢, a YES share pays 11.8x if the regime falls by June 30. That bet requires mounting internal and external pressures to produce a collapse within weeks.
Watch for IRGC defections, new international sanctions, or large-scale protests in major Iranian cities. Any of these would likely push odds higher.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall May 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 4.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 16.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
