Iran took two container ships near the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market is at 8.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday.
Market reaction
The regime fall market ticked up half a point as traders priced in more risk from the seizures. The permanent peace deal market moved more sharply: April 30 odds dropped to 2.5% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
Why it matters
Volume in the regime fall market is $35,587 in USDC daily, with $16,830 needed to shift prices by 5 points. The market is thin and can be moved by moderate orders. The permanent peace deal market has more liquidity at $854,504 in USDC daily, though a single order can still create noticeable price shifts.
The Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint for global oil supplies. Seizing commercial vessels there raises the cost of confrontation with the US and regional powers, but ship seizures alone don’t translate into regime collapse. The question is whether this escalation leads to broader military engagement or forces a diplomatic response.
What to watch
Watch for statements from Iranian or US officials and any IRGC actions. A public appearance by Iran’s leaders could temporarily stabilize perceptions, but an aggressive military response from either side would push regime destabilization odds higher.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 13.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 2.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 31.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 46.5% | — | — | Trade → |
