A quantum computer broke a 15-bit elliptic curve key in a Bitcoin-related test. The demonstration doesn’t immediately threaten Bitcoin’s 256-bit security but raises questions about future vulnerabilities. The “Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31?” market sits at 100% YES.
Market reaction
The crypto hack market has been stable at 100% YES, with traders fully expecting a significant breach by year’s end. The April 26 Bitcoin market remains at 99.8% YES. Combined daily volume is $66,346 face value and $52,701 in actual USDC. The price to move the market by 5 points sits at $67,380.
The Ethereum market shows no reaction. Odds for the price falling below $2,000 on April 24 are at just 0.1% YES. That market trades with a face value of $405,683 but only $344 in actual USDC, a gap that signals almost no conviction in downward movement.
Why it matters
Bitcoin’s 256-bit security isn’t at risk from a 15-bit key break, but the gap between what quantum computers can crack and what secures the network is narrowing. The demonstration puts a timeline on a problem the crypto ecosystem has mostly treated as theoretical. For traders, the hack market is already fully priced in at 100% YES, so a YES share pays the full dollar if resolved but offers no upside from current levels.
What to watch
Google’s quantum roadmap and any blockchain announcements about post-quantum cryptography adoption. If Ethereum or Bitcoin core developers announce specific timelines for quantum-resistant upgrades, odds across multiple markets could shift quickly.
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Another Crypto Hack Over 100m December 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 26 | 99.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 24 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
