Putin’s approval rating has fallen to 65.6% amid economic troubles and a crackdown on internet freedoms. The Polymarket contract on Putin leaving the presidency by June 30 is at 3.7% YES, up from 3% yesterday.
Market reaction
The dip in approval ratings and economic contraction could increase pressure on the Bank of Russia to cut rates further. Traders are watching the Bank of Russia Decision in April, given the recent 14.5% rate cut, though no immediate change is expected. The Putin’s Presidency Status market ticked up to 3.7% YES, suggesting limited belief in an imminent leadership change.
Why it matters
Trading activity on Putin’s potential exit is thin: $337 in USDC traded daily, and only $818 is needed to move the odds by 5 points. The market is susceptible to influence from small trades, so the price move from 3% to 3.7% doesn’t necessarily reflect a broad shift in sentiment.
What to watch
The economic downturn and internet restrictions point to internal pressures, but they don’t drastically change the probability of a political shift. At 3.7¢, a YES share pays $1 if Putin is out by June 30, a 27x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in a major upheaval within 67 days. Watch for official announcements from the Kremlin or changes in Security Council positions, which could signal actual instability.
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