Phillips 66 sent Texas crude to an East Coast refiner, the first use of the Jones Act waiver since President Trump issued it on March 18, 2026. On Polymarket, WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April shows no movement, with traders pricing in lower odds as eased supply constraints point toward falling prices.
The waiver lets foreign vessels transport oil between U.S. ports, a measure designed to offset supply disruptions from the conflict with Iran. This acts as a pressure release valve for WTI prices. Both the April and June price markets reflect expectations of a decrease. The April market leans bearish because increased domestic shipping capacity could undo some of the tension-driven price spikes.
The June crude oil price market shows a similar pattern. The waiver could clear supply bottlenecks, making a $90 price target less likely. Both markets are thinly traded, with no significant activity in the past 24 hours. But the policy’s effects could start showing up in these markets as traders work through the implications of increased domestic oil flow.
The waiver signals a shift in the administration’s approach to managing war-induced economic shocks, prioritizing domestic logistics over changes to military strategy. At 22¢, a YES share for WTI hitting $160 by April pays $1 if resolved, a 4.5x return. But with new shipping routes now open, traders may need to reassess their positions.
Watch for announcements on extending the Jones Act waiver or changes to foreign vessel regulations. The U.S. Department of Energy’s next report could also move market sentiment if domestic inventories shift significantly.
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