A Pentagon assessment shared with Congress suggests mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz could take up to six months. The market for 80 ships transiting by April 30 now sits at 5% YES, down from 17% just 24 hours ago.
The April 30 market fell sharply from 28% a week ago. With 7 days until resolution, the nearly 20-point drop reflects skepticism that the strait can reopen quickly enough for 80 ships to transit in a single day before the deadline.
The Pentagon’s six-month estimate is also dragging down the broader market for traffic normalization by end of June. Market depth shows it takes just $946 to move the odds by five points, which means a single large trade could swing pricing significantly. Daily trading volume at $2,238, suggesting limited liquidity and few participants willing to bet on rapid clearance.
This matters because the Pentagon’s timeline effectively rules out normal shipping activity through the strait for months. At 5¢, a YES share pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a 20x return. For that bet to pay off, you’d need mine clearance to accelerate far beyond what the Pentagon told Congress is feasible.
Watch for updates from U.S. Central Command or announcements of expedited clearance operations. Any credible change to the six-month timeline could move odds quickly, especially given how thin the order book is.
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