Pakistani Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir met with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in Tehran. The US-Iran peace deal by April 22 market sits at 16% YES, up from 20% yesterday.
Market reaction
The April 22 contract ticked up but remains well below a coin flip. Traders are pricing in some possibility that Pakistan’s diplomatic engagement moves the needle, but not much. The April 30 market is more bullish at 38.5% YES, suggesting traders expect any progress to take more than a week.
Why it matters
The term structure shows growing confidence over time. The biggest jump is between April 30 and May 31, which is where traders seem to expect a breakthrough if one comes. The May 31 market sits at 58.5% YES, up from 52% yesterday, while June 30 leads at 67.5% YES.
What to watch
Volume on the April 22 market is at $350,399 in USDC traded daily, with $38,743 needed to move the price 5 percentage points. The largest move in the last 24 hours was an 8-point drop at 3:32 PM. The order book is thick enough to absorb small trades without sharp swings.
Munir’s visit to Tehran positions Pakistan as a potential go-between after the initial US-Iran talks. At 22.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if a peace deal is signed by April 22, a 4.44x return. To take that bet, you’d need to believe Pakistan can help produce a deal in the next six days.
Watch for signals from President Trump or Vice President Vance on resuming negotiations. Any concrete announcement of a second round of talks could move these contracts sharply.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 22.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 58.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 72% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 12.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 29.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
