Pakistan’s mediation in US-Iran talks, with backing from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, has pushed ceasefire extension odds to 81% YES on Polymarket, up from 70% a week ago.
Market reaction
The ceasefire extension market has moved steadily upward. Meanwhile, odds that Trump announces a ceasefire breach by April 21 have collapsed to 8.5% YES, down from 33% a week ago. The term structure drops steeply after April 21, suggesting traders expect any major development to land within that window.
The ceasefire extension market trades $101,910 in USDC daily, with its largest recent move an 8-point drop at 6:06 PM. The breach announcement market is far thinner at $2,456 daily volume, with a 2-point dip as its biggest recent swing. That volume gap shows traders are concentrating their capital on the ceasefire holding rather than breaking.
Why it matters
Pakistan’s involvement alongside Saudi Arabia and Qatar represents coordinated diplomatic pressure from multiple regional actors. For traders, a YES share at 81¢ pays $1 if the ceasefire is extended, a 1.32x return.
What to watch
Official announcements from Pakistan about a second round of talks. Field Marshal Asim Munir’s next moves could shift odds further. Statements from Gulf intermediaries, particularly Oman and Qatar, would also signal whether momentum is building or stalling.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 9.5% | +1¢ | $20K | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 83.5% | +7¢ | $123K | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 17.5% | +2¢ | $1.3M | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 37.9% | +1.5¢ | $84K | Trade → |
