Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that no dates have been set for a second round of US-Iran talks. The market on Trump agreeing to Iranian demands like oil sanction relief in April sits at 36% YES.
Market reaction
The Iranian demands market prices a 36% chance of Trump agreeing to oil sanction relief, down 1% from 24 hours ago. Daily volume is at $2,050 USDC, with a 2-point drop at 12:19 PM. The uranium enrichment market is at 38.8% YES, with traders skeptical about an agreement by April 30.
Why it matters
The Iranian demands market trades $23,234 in face value but only $8,200 in actual USDC. Just $360 can move the price by 5 points, making it vulnerable to swings. The uranium enrichment market is more liquid: $81,849 in face value, $29,127 in actual USDC, and $1,648 needed to shift 5 points. The largest move was a 4-point drop after Pakistan’s confirmation that no talks are scheduled.
Pakistan’s statement points to further delays in any substantive US-Iran agreements. A YES share at 38.8¢ pays $1 if an agreement is reached by April 30, a 2.78x return. That payout requires a breakthrough against current signals.
What to watch
Statements from US or Iranian officials indicating new talks or concessions would move these markets. Without a scheduled dialogue, both markets are likely to drift lower as the April 30 deadline approaches.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 37% | +1¢ | $5K | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 37.9% | +1.5¢ | $84K | Trade → |