Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7 on April 16, pushing the “Claude 4.7 released by May 31” market to 99.9% YES, up from 38% a week ago.
The actual release has effectively resolved multiple deadline markets. Both the May 31 and June 30 markets sit at 99.9% YES. The April 30 market is also at 99.9% YES. The specific April 16 date market hit 100% YES, while April 17 dropped to 0.1%.
Why it matters
The April 16 market saw the heaviest activity, with $130,166 in USDC traded. The order book was thin: moving the market 5 percentage points cost only $258. The largest single move was a 15-point spike, likely one large order pushing odds from 55% to 70%.
What to watch
The Claude 4.7 release on April 16 matches earlier bullish signals from Anthropic’s announcements and documentation updates. With these markets now resolved, there’s no remaining speculative value on this model’s release timing. Trader attention shifts to Claude 5, which is unaffected by current events. Watch Anthropic’s official channels and statements from Dario Amodei for any signals on that timeline.
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Claude 4pt7 Released| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17, 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19, 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 21, 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 16, 2026 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 18, 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |