Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has rejected Hezbollah’s demand for withdrawal to the international border, opting instead for a security zone extending to the Syrian border. The likelihood of Israel suspending its Lebanon offensive by April 30 now sits at 98.4%, up from 87% a day ago.
The suspension of the Lebanon offensive by April 30 market saw odds jump after Netanyahu’s announcement, with trading volume at $339,785 in actual USDC over the past 24 hours. The April 17 sub-market, now at 97.6% YES, had the largest move: a 28-point spike from 28% to 56% at 1:15 PM.
The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 99.6% YES, showing continued skepticism about diplomatic progress. Netanyahu’s refusal to negotiate on withdrawal terms points to a prolonged conflict. The June 30 ceasefire market is priced at 99.6% YES.
For traders, current odds indicate that Netanyahu’s rejection of Hezbollah’s terms has already been absorbed into expectations of continued military engagement. Buying YES at 98.4¢ leaves little upside unless conditions shift unexpectedly.
Watch for statements from the Israeli Defense Minister or Hezbollah leadership. Any announcement of a change in military strategy or renewed diplomatic contact could move these markets quickly.
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Israel X Lebanon Diplomatic Meeting| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 98.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 99.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 99.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 97.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 99.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 99.6% | — | — | Trade → |
