Someone poisoned over 100 Basij members in Tehran, killing one and hospitalizing others. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by May 31 sit at 3% YES.
The poisoning targeted regime enforcers, raising questions about insider threats. Traders have responded, with a 15% increase in odds expected for the regime’s fall by May 31. The market trades $27,933 in actual USDC daily, with $11,290 required to move odds 5 percentage points.
Reza Pahlavi’s potential return to Iran by June 30 is at 6.5% YES, up from 6% yesterday. The term structure shows more confidence in his return by December 31, at 13.5% YES. Volume is $3,975 in actual USDC, with $9,322 to move odds 5 points.
The poisoning points to a possible breach within the regime’s own enforcement ranks. If Basij members were targeted by someone with access, that kind of internal vulnerability could encourage opposition movements and rattle loyalists. The market reaction so far is a moderate repricing of regime stability, not a dramatic shift.
Traders should watch for signals from the IRGC and Assembly of Experts. Major defections or leadership reassignments would matter most. Credible reports of Reza Pahlavi’s movements or public statements could also move odds on his return.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall May 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
