Oil prices slipped to intraday lows of $93 as US-Iran tensions temporarily de-escalated. The likelihood of crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 is at 1.4% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
The market responded to news that neither VP Vance nor Iran’s Ghalibaf will attend upcoming negotiations, a signal that diplomatic efforts have stalled but not collapsed. This eased immediate fears of a Strait of Hormuz closure, which had previously spooked markets. The WTI crude oil price in April market, which resolves at $160, is likely seeing reduced odds as traders price in decreased disruption risk.
With 6 days until resolution, the April 30 all-time high market has traded $100,828 in face value. Actual USDC traded is $2,513, with a cost of $695 to move the price 5 points. A 1-point spike occurred earlier, but the market remains bearish on hitting record highs.
Stalled talks don’t eliminate underlying tensions, but they pause imminent escalation fears, giving traders a reason to adjust positions. A YES share at 14¢ pays $1 if crude hits record highs by April 30, a 7.14x return. For this to pay off, you’d need a rapid escalation or major supply disruption in the next week.
Watch for any surprise OPEC moves or shifts in US-Iran negotiations. VP Vance’s next steps and any changes in Iran’s stance could move these odds quickly.
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