The DOJ ended its probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and odds for Kevin Warsh’s confirmation by May 15 jumped to 79% YES, up from 29% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The shift follows the removal of a specific obstacle: Senator Thom Tillis had blocked Warsh’s confirmation pending the investigation’s resolution. The May 1 market sits at 1.9%, but the May 15 market surged as traders priced in a faster confirmation now that the probe is closed. The June 30 market is at 97%.
Why it matters
Trading volume on the May 15 market is $17,756 in daily USDC traded, while the May 1 market moves only $193/day, consistent with near-zero odds of an ultra-rapid confirmation. Order book depth on May 15 is $1,590 to move 5 points, suggesting institutional positioning. The largest single move was a 20-point spike, likely one large order rather than a series of smaller trades.
What to watch
At 79¢, a YES share on Warsh’s May 15 confirmation pays 1.27x. With Tillis’s block lifted, confirmation looks likely, but the Senate’s scheduling pace is the remaining variable. Watch for Senate Banking Committee hearing dates and public endorsements from GOP leadership. A quick committee vote could push May 15 odds higher, while any delay or new opposition would introduce volatility.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 1.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 15 | 79% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 97% | — | — | Trade → |