Oil leaving Middle East trades over $100 a barrel. Here’s how it could affect bitcoin

Murban crude, a key benchmark for barrels that can bypass the Strait of Hormuz, now trades at $103 per barrel.

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What to know:

• Murban crude, a key benchmark for barrels that can bypass the Strait of Hormuz, has surged above $100 a barrel, signaling acute geopolitical stress and supply fears.
• A sustained spike in physically delivered oil prices could spill into broader benchmarks, tighten financial conditions, and pressure risk assets such as global equities and bitcoin.

Oil barrels that can still reliably reach global markets via the Middle East are now trading above $100 a barrel, a stark market signal of acute geopolitical stress and supply fears that could ripple through global risk assets, including stocks and bitcoin BTC$67,252.29.

Since the military conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran began a week ago, Iran has significantly disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a major route that facilitates over $500 billion in oil and gas trade annually.

As a result, traders are paying as much attention to oil accessibility as they are to demand and daily production. The oil market is now essentially divided into two segments: barrels that are vulnerable, relying on chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, and barrels that can still move, reaching buyers reliably while bypassing geopolitical disruptions.

The benchmark for the second category is Murban crude oil, which traded above $103 per barrel on Sunday, a significant premium to popular global benchmarks such as WTI and Brent, according to Oilprice.com.

A sharp rise in Murban to above $100 indicates strong competition among refiners seeking prompt cargoes, a sign of real demand for immediate physical deliveries rather than speculative momentum often seen in futures markets.

Murban, a premium, light, and sweet crude produced by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company from onshore fields in the UAE, is exported through the Fujairah Oil Terminal, a hub located outside the Strait of Hormuz. It can still safely reach buyers in Asia, mainly Japan, India, Thailand, and the Philippines, as well as some European nations and has become the go-to gauge for barrels that can reliably reach global buyers amid Middle East tensions.

Implications for bitcoin and risk assets

Murban surpassing $100 per barrel is more than just a milestone for crude pricing. It’s a signal that geopolitical risk is being fully priced into the physical oil market, and that the accessibility of oil, not just its existence, is shaping valuations.

That risk could spill over into broader benchmarks like WTI and Brent when markets open on Monday. In other words, these benchmarks could quickly soar into three figures, potentially rattling Asian and global equities and putting pressure on risk assets, including bitcoin.

For an asset like bitcoin, which lacks an underlying cash flow or revenues, fiat liquidity conditions play an outsized role in its price dynamics. A surge in oil like this could tighten liquidity by stoking inflation fears, potentially prompting central banks to raise interest rates.

Both WTI and Brent crude oil have already surged roughly 30% since the onset of the conflict, while markets have started discounting expected Fed rate cuts, as CoinDesk noted Friday.

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, last traded near $67,000, having hit highs near $74,000 early this week, according to CoinDesk data.

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