Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared that the situation with US-Iran talks “is not over,” hinting at escalating tensions. The odds for Trump announcing the end of the US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 are at 22.5%, up from 6% yesterday.
Netanyahu’s remarks follow recent US military actions, including the seizure of an Iranian cargo vessel, which Iran labeled a ceasefire breach. The April 21 market surged by 5 points at 11:03 AM, as traders priced in higher risk of conflict resumption. With only three days left, this sub-market is where bets are concentrating.
Volume over the last 24 hours hit $7,248 in actual USDC traded, against a relatively low face value of $83,313. The order book is thin: just $880 would shift the odds by 5 points, meaning any significant news could cause sharp price swings.
Netanyahu’s comments and the US military’s aggressive posture point toward confrontation. The market’s current price of 22.5¢ offers a potential 6.25x return if Trump announces the ceasefire’s collapse. That bet requires believing further escalations will happen within three days.
Watch for statements from the Pentagon or Netanyahu that could signal a move toward military engagement. Iran’s response to the naval blockade will also matter.
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Israel X Hezbollah Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 22.5% | — | — | Trade → |
