Iran’s Foreign Ministry said there is no plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The market on Trump announcing the US blockade lift by May 31 is now at 78%, down from 90% twenty-four hours ago.
Market reaction
The May 31 market dropped 12 points, suggesting traders don’t expect quick de-escalation. The April 19 market is at 8%, down from 28% as the ceasefire’s expiration looms. The term structure shows a 70-point gap between April 19 and May 31, meaning traders see possible catalysts for resolution in the weeks between those dates.
Oil market odds are shifting too. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April is at 1.4%, unchanged after Iran’s statement. Liquidity is thin at $704/day actual USDC, showing limited conviction, but any escalation could move this quickly.
On the naval side, the UK sending warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 is at 8.5%, low but nonzero given current tensions.
Why it matters
Iran’s statement signals a sustained impasse, not a negotiating tactic with a short shelf life. Traders betting on quick resolution face a problem: there is no visible diplomatic channel producing results right now. At 22¢, a YES share in the Trump blockade market pays $1 if resolved by May 31, a 4.5x return. That payout only makes sense if you expect an imminent diplomatic breakthrough.
What to watch
Upcoming CENTCOM statements and any diplomatic engagement from Oman or Qatar. Either could move the market sharply if they point toward de-escalation.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 78% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 1.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 9% | — | — | Trade → |
