A MarineTraffic timelapse shows a sharp decline in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran reimposed its closure, rejecting US-backed talks. The market for fewer than 10 ships transiting between April 13-19 sits at 0.4% YES.
Market reaction
The April 13-19 market barely moved, aside from a 2-point spike at 4:25 AM, showing little confidence in a YES resolution. With the closure now in effect and traffic effectively halted, traders remain skeptical about the Strait reopening soon.
Why it matters
Actual USDC trading volume is $14. It would take just $12 to shift the price by five points, a sign of an extremely thin market. Face value reports $2,923/day, but this masks the real liquidity situation, leaving the market vulnerable to volatility from even minor transactions.
Iran’s reimposition of the closure points to a long game rather than a quick turnaround. The shipping traffic drop reflects Iran’s stance against US-backed negotiations. The market prices YES at 0.4¢ per share. A YES share pays $1 on resolution, a 250x return if fewer than 10 ships transit by April 19.
What to watch
CENTCOM operational updates and announcements from the Iranian government. Changes in US naval strategy or any diplomatic breakthroughs could quickly shift expectations and market pricing.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 13 19| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
