Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin ETF, $MSBT, has pulled in over $100M in its debut week, the firm’s most successful ETF launch to date. Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by December 31, 2026, sits at 17.5% YES.
The inflows into Morgan Stanley’s ETF have lifted Bitcoin price targets on Polymarket, with traders watching the potential for Bitcoin to hit $100,000 by the end of 2026. This market is at 37.5% YES, up from 34% a week ago. The odds of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the same date are lower, holding at 10.5% YES.
The term structure of the Bitcoin all-time high markets shows increasing confidence over longer timeframes. Odds for a new high by September 30, 2026, have risen to 10% YES, up from 6% a week ago. The December 31 odds are the highest at 17.5% YES, which suggests traders expect potential catalysts in the latter half of the year.
USDC volume across all sub-markets is modest at $589 in the last 24 hours. The largest price move was a 1-point jump in the September 30 sub-market. Thin liquidity means large orders can still move these markets significantly.
Morgan Stanley’s ETF launch came amid military tensions between the U.S. and Iran, yet institutional demand for Bitcoin exposure persisted. Buying YES at 18¢ pays $1 if Bitcoin hits a new all-time high, a 5.6x return. To justify that bet, you’d need to believe institutional inflows sustain or accelerate and that geopolitical tensions don’t escalate further.
Watch for Federal Reserve policy decisions and major corporate announcements that could shift institutional appetite for Bitcoin ETFs. Sustained ETF inflows or favorable regulatory developments would directly affect these odds.
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Bitcoin All Time High| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 3.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 10% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100,000 | 37.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| $150,000 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
