Keir Starmer’s political position is weakening as the Mandelson scandal deepens. The market for Starmer leaving office by December 31, 2026, is at 67% YES, up from 49% a week ago.
Leaked US Department of Justice files revealed Peter Mandelson’s ties to Jeffrey Epstein and unauthorized sharing of sensitive government information, and the fallout has landed squarely on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The June 30, 2026 market sits at 43% YES, unchanged from yesterday but double the 18% it was a week ago. The larger jump in the December 31 market shows traders pricing in a leadership change before year’s end as the more likely scenario.
Volume hit $27,552 in USDC over the past 24 hours, and it takes $13,379 to move the December market by 5 percentage points. Even with that liquidity, the odds reflect a real threat to Starmer’s position. Opposition figures including Nigel Farage are amplifying calls for his resignation.
Starmer admitted to vetting failures and dismissed both Mandelson and Foreign Office head Sir Olly Robbins, but neither move has contained the damage. Labour’s internal discord is now public, and the possibility of a leadership contest is growing. A YES share for Starmer’s exit by December 31 at 64.5¢ pays 1.55x. That bet requires believing the political pressure and internal conflict will force a resignation or removal within 255 days.
Watch for Labour’s NEC moves, public opinion shifts, and any formal leadership challenges. Any of these would mark a turning point for Starmer’s chances of staying on.
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Will Trump Publicly Insult Someone On| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 11, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 12, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 13, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 43% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 67% | — | — | Trade → |
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