Lebanon’s President Aoun has defined non-negotiable terms for talks with Israel while Trump signals support for the ceasefire. The Trump endorsement market sits at 100% YES with 12 days until resolution.
Aoun named Ambassador Simon Karam to lead the delegation, with stated goals of halting Israeli hostilities and ending the occupation in southern Lebanon. Trump expressed “full understanding” and intervened to stop ceasefire violations, consistent with the market’s pricing. The Trump endorsement market has held at 100% YES throughout.
The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire market is also priced at 100% YES. Aoun’s red lines point toward asserting Lebanese state sovereignty over Hezbollah, which could reinforce the existing ceasefire. The Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting market is at 100% YES as well, meaning the market prices in full diplomatic engagement across all three contracts.
All three markets show zero trading volume. The odds are maxed out, but there is no liquidity behind them. A single large trade could move the price significantly, and any unexpected development would find no depth to absorb the shock.
For traders, a YES share in the Trump endorsement market is a formality at its current price with no downside at 100%. The real variable is what comes next: subsequent statements from Trump or the State Department, and whether Israel or Hezbollah deviate from ceasefire terms. Watch Trump’s public communications and any shifts in Israeli or Hezbollah actions. A change in tone from Trump or Netanyahu could move these odds fast.
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Will Trump Endorse An Israeli Ceasefire In Lebanon April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
