Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff will travel to Pakistan to negotiate peace with Iran. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026, market sits at 9.5% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
The trip follows a previous negotiation round that failed to extend the ceasefire. While the April 30 market remains at 9.5%, the May 31 market is at 36.5% YES, and the June 30 market trades at 53.5% YES. The term structure shows traders expect any deal, if one happens, to come closer to the June deadline.
Today’s trading saw $854,588 in actual USDC across these markets, with the largest single move being a 6-point spike at 11:14 AM. The cost to move odds 5 points is $27,667 for the April market, which points to significant liquidity and interest, though with a bearish tilt on immediate resolution.
Pakistan’s role as a neutral broker opens a different diplomatic channel. But the core sticking points remain: Iran’s demand for a Lebanon ceasefire and the US’s insistence on zero uranium enrichment. For traders, buying YES at 9.5¢ offers a 10.5x return if a deal is signed by April 30. Confidence in that timeline is low.
Watch for public statements from Kushner and Witkoff, and any updates from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. A shift in rhetoric or a new proposal could move these markets quickly.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 52.5% | — | — | Trade → |
