Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation process is underway, signaling a likely transition at the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31 sits at 96% YES, up from 92% yesterday.
Market reaction
Warsh’s nomination by President Trump, known for his hawkish views, raises the probability of Powell’s departure. The May 15 market sits at 72.5% YES, down from 80% yesterday, suggesting traders see confirmation as unlikely by mid-May. The biggest jump occurs between May 14 and May 15, pointing to a potential catalyst in that window. The June 30 market at 99.7% YES reflects near certainty of Powell’s exit by then.
Why it matters
The Powell exit market trades $248,238 daily in face value, with actual USDC at $21,084. The order book is relatively thin: it takes only $2,168 to move the odds 5 percentage points in the May 14 market. The largest single move over the past day was a 25-point drop in the May 15 market at 7:03 PM, likely driven by uncertainty over Warsh’s swift confirmation.
Warsh’s commitment to Fed independence and hawkish stance on rate policy suggests a lower likelihood of rate cuts in 2026.
What to watch
At 5.2¢, a YES share for Powell out by May 14 pays $1 if it resolves, a 19.2x return. Given the current odds, the bet is risky unless you believe in a quick confirmation process. Watch for developments from the Senate Banking Committee and any statements from Powell or Warsh that could shift confirmation timelines. The May 4 Senate session, where a vote could clarify confirmation prospects, is the key date.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Bitcoin Above On May 1| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 99.3% | 0.0¢ | $2K | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14 | 5.2% | 0.0¢ | $236K | View market → |
| May 31 | 96.4% | 0.0¢ | $1K | View market → |
| June 30 | 99.5% | +0.1¢ | $12K | View market → |
| May 15 | 72.5% | 0.0¢ | $5K | View market → |
