Canada’s proposed ban on crypto ATMs has hit Bitcoin prediction markets hard. The market for Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in April is now at 4.5% YES, down from 10% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The odds for Bitcoin surpassing $70,000 by April 29 remain steady at 99.9% YES, and the May 1 market holds at 99.4% YES with two days left. Neither has moved. The real action is in the April $80,000 market, where odds have dropped sharply.
Why it matters
A week ago, the $80,000 April market peaked at 76% YES. It now sits at 4.5%. The order book is thin: it takes just $2,211 to move the odds 5 points, making the market vulnerable to swings from single large trades.
Combined trading volume across Bitcoin price targets is $53,970 in actual USDC. That’s enough for normal activity but not enough to absorb major position changes without volatility. The largest move was a 6-point spike at 9:50 AM, driven by a single large order.
What to watch
Further regulatory developments from Canada and other countries could reinforce bearish pressure on Bitcoin if similar measures gain traction. At 4.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if Bitcoin hits $80,000 by the end of April, a 22.22x return. Buying YES at this price requires believing a significant bullish catalyst is imminent.
Watch for moves from BlackRock and MicroStrategy in particular. Large-scale institutional purchases could shift sentiment quickly.
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What Price Will Bitcoin Hit In April 2026| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $80,000 | 4.6% | — | — | View market → |
| $150,000 | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 99.3% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 29 | 99.9% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3 | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
