Keir Starmer faces increasing pressure over his handling of the Peter Mandelson scandal. Markets now price Starmer out by June 30, 2026, at 36% YES, down from 42% yesterday.
The June 30 odds have retreated after a 2-point drop, but the December 31, 2026 odds sit at 65.5% YES. Traders see a higher likelihood of Starmer’s exit closer to year’s end, with the largest gap between these two dates concentrated in the second half of 2026. The Starmer out by June 30, 2026 and Starmer out by December 31, 2026 markets have a combined $16,715 in USDC traded over 24 hours.
Volume is $8,374/day for the June 30 market and $8,341/day for the December 31 market. The order book depth shows $3,486 is required to move the June market by 5 points, which means small trades won’t shift the price much.
Starmer’s fate could hinge on the testimony of Sir Olly Robbins, scheduled for Tuesday. If Robbins implicates Starmer further, it could become a tipping point. Buying YES for June 30 at 36¢ offers a potential 2.78x return if Starmer exits by then. That bet assumes serious political fallout from Robbins’ testimony.
Watch Robbins’ testimony on Tuesday. A definitive statement implicating Starmer could move these markets fast. Any leadership challenges from within Labour would compound the pressure and likely push odds higher.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 35.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 65.5% | — | — | Trade → |
