The Justice Department indicted former FBI Director James Comey, charging him with making threats against President Trump via an Instagram post. “James Comey arrested by May 15?” is at 70% YES, indicating strong market belief in his impending arrest.
The indictment triggered immediate market movement. The May 15 contract spiked from 44% to 52% on the news. Traders are pricing in a resolution within the 16-day window, with a 62-point spread between the April 29 and May 15 contracts. The April 29 contract, at 9% YES, shows little expectation of an immediate arrest.
Daily volume sits at $19,447 in USDC. The largest single move was a 16-point drop last night as traders adjusted to the new legal reality. It takes $5,410 to move the April 29 odds by five points, making that contract sensitive to large trades. The May 15 contract has more depth at $8,223.
The indictment itself, combined with the issuance of an arrest warrant, makes a YES outcome more probable by May 15. At 70¢, a YES share pays $1 if Comey is arrested, a 1.43x return given the DOJ’s aggressive posture.
Watch for statements from Lindsey Halligan, Todd Blanche, or Kash Patel. Any confirmation of arrest plans or public comments about enforcement will be the key signals.
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James Comey Arrested May 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 29 | 8% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 15 | 70.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 45% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 70% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 1.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 29.5% | — | — | Trade → |
