Jerome Powell is likely chairing his last FOMC meeting today, with Kevin Warsh set to take over next month. The market for Powell stepping down by May 14 sits at 5% YES, while the May 31 contract trades at 97% YES.
Market reaction
The May 14 contract spiked from 2% to 50% at 11:40 AM yesterday but quickly settled back to 5%. Traders briefly priced in an immediate exit, then reverted. The May 15 contract jumped to 73.5% YES, up from 26% just a day ago, a 47.5-point surge reflecting increased expectations of Powell’s departure in that window. The June 30 contract sits at 98.4% YES, with traders betting on Warsh stepping in well before then.
Why it matters
Powell’s departure and Warsh’s anticipated confirmation would change who controls monetary policy direction. Warsh, a former Fed governor who left the board in 2011, has been publicly skeptical of the Fed’s post-2020 inflation response, and his appointment could shift rate-setting priorities.
What to watch
In trading terms, $12,518 in actual USDC moved the May 14 market, with $3,604 needed to swing it 5 points. That thin liquidity means a single large order can cause sharp moves, as the 48-point spike yesterday showed. May 31’s book is deeper at $943 actual USDC, making it harder to push around. At 5¢, a YES share for May 14 pays $1 if Powell exits by then, a 20x return. Traders banking on a swift confirmation are speculating on a narrow window.
Watch for Senate Banking Committee scheduling on Warsh’s confirmation vote and any White House statements on the transition timeline. These will determine whether the May 14 or May 15 contracts reprice again.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14 | 5.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 97% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 98.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 15 | 73.5% | — | — | Trade → |
Gloria API — Get prediction market signals delivered to your trading stack.
Join the Waitlist
