Taiwan is the main focus for Beijing during the upcoming Trump-Xi summit on May 14-15, and the odds for Trump visiting China by May 31 now sit at 75% YES.
The summit confirmation moved markets. The May 31 sub-market shifted from 78% to 75% YES over the past week, while the May 1 market is at 64.5% YES. The June 30 market is at 81% YES, showing traders expect the visit to happen relatively soon. Markets for earlier dates remain negligible, with May 5 and May 7 both at 0% YES.
The market trades $42,699 in USDC daily. The May 31 sub-market has a deep order book, with $31,203 needed to move the price 5 points, which points to institutional-level participation. The largest move was a 49-point spike in the April 30 sub-market that didn’t hold, suggesting speculative activity rather than firm conviction.
Taiwan’s position on the agenda is expected, but the summit confirmation itself locks in expectations for a Trump visit. At 75¢, a YES share for May 31 pays $1 if Trump visits China, a 1.33x return. For this bet to work, you’d need to believe there won’t be major disruptions like an Iran conflict escalation or a Taiwan Strait crisis.
Watch for an official White House itinerary release or Chinese Foreign Ministry announcements confirming Trump’s departure for Beijing. Either would likely push odds higher.
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Will Trump Visit China| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 81% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3 | 74.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 1 | 64.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 5 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 7 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 9 | 1.4% | — | — | Trade → |
