JD Vance is heading to Islamabad for high-level US-Iran peace talks. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sits at 43% YES, up from 36% yesterday.
Traders pushed odds in the Iranian demands market up by 7 points on the news. The move suggests some confidence that Vance’s trip could produce concessions on sanctions. In the permanent peace deal market, odds for a deal by April 22 dropped to 17.5% YES, while the April 30 market ticked up slightly to 33.5% YES. Traders appear skeptical about a deal before the ceasefire expires but more willing to bet on one shortly after.
These sub-markets have a combined volume of $16,425 in USDC. The Iranian demands market is thin: just $387 moves the odds 5 points, making it vulnerable to large single orders. The permanent peace deal market is much thicker, requiring $63,331 to shift 5 points.
Vance’s visit comes days before the April 23 ceasefire expiry, which creates a hard deadline for any near-term agreement. At 43¢ per YES share, a successful sanction relief outcome pays $1, a 2.32x return. The 12.5% odds on a permanent deal by April 22 reflect how many unresolved issues, including uranium enrichment limits, still separate the two sides.
Watch for announcements from Islamabad. Any mention of concessions on uranium or sanctions relief will move these markets. Confirmation of deal progress from wire services would likely trigger sharp repricing, especially in the thinly traded sanctions relief contract.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 43% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 39.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 61.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 70.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 24.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 44.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 35.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 58% | — | — | Trade → |
