Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid slammed the U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon announced by Trump. The odds of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah by April 30 now sit at 94% YES, up from 45% a week ago.
Lapid’s criticism points to internal Israeli tensions and skepticism about whether the ceasefire will hold. Traders, however, are pricing in the formal agreement Trump announced. The April 30 ceasefire market spiked 13 points at 1:16 PM.
The suspension of the Lebanon offensive by April 30 is at 96.2% YES, up from 87% just 24 hours ago. The largest move in that market was a 9-point spike at 1:17 PM, suggesting traders expect military operations to pause following the ceasefire.
Traders are treating the ceasefire as a real de-escalation, not just political theater, even with Lapid’s pushback. Daily volume in the April 30 ceasefire market is $1,041,878 in USDC. The main risk to the bet: Hezbollah’s compliance, which Lapid himself has questioned.
Statements from Netanyahu or the IDF that affirm or contradict the ceasefire terms could move these markets. Any resumed military actions would also shift odds quickly.
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Israel X Hezbollah Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 97.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 94% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 95.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 97.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 98.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 87.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
