The U.S. is preparing to counter Iranian fast-attack boats using lethal tactics proven effective in Venezuela. Kharg Island control by June 30 is at 12.5%.
Market reaction
The Kharg Island control by April 30 sits at 3% and May 31 at 10%. The 7-point jump between April 30 and May 31 suggests traders expect a catalyst in May. June 30 odds have dropped from 19% a week ago. Traders are pricing in a higher probability of U.S. military action affecting Kharg Island over the next two months, but not imminently.
Why it matters
The U.S. escorting commercial ships through Hormuz by April 30 is at 18%, down from 24% yesterday. The largest move was a 2-point drop at 3:15 AM, pointing to skepticism about immediate U.S. naval action even as threat levels rise.
Volume across Kharg Island markets is $30,600 in real dollars traded, with a face value of $662,413. Moving the price 5 points costs between $8,846 and $19,513, which suggests institutional interest but also vulnerability to single large orders. The escort market saw $6,939 traded, with a shallow order book ($2,110 needed to move 5 points), making it prone to volatility.
What to watch
At 15¢, a YES share for Kharg Island control by June 30 would pay 6.67x. That bet requires confidence in U.S. escalation within 75 days. The market’s term structure (3% at April 30, 10% at May 31, 15% at June 30) prices in a gradual ramp, not a sudden strike.
Watch for CENTCOM or White House announcements on naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Any confirmation of U.S. military action or shifts in Iranian defensive posture would move these markets materially.
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Kharg Island No Longer Under Iranian Control March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 12.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 16% | — | — | Trade → |
