The Israeli army launched an interceptor missile at an aerial target near their operations south of Lebanon. The market predicting Iranian military action by April 30 sits at 100% YES.
The missile launch is part of ongoing Israeli operations against Hezbollah. The Iran strike by April 30 market remains pinned at 100% YES, meaning traders see zero room for de-escalation. With seven days left, any shift would require a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough.
Separately, Reza Pahlavi’s recent statements in Berlin may be moving the market for his return to Iran by June 30, now at 6.5% YES. His planned European summit adds some substance to regime change discussions, with odds up from 6% a day ago. The December 31 market has also ticked up to 13.5% YES, a longer-term bet on Pahlavi’s political trajectory.
The “Iran Leadership Status” market remains speculative, with no clear volume or odds data available. Pahlavi’s moves haven’t registered a significant impact there yet, but any credible shift in Iranian leadership dynamics could change trader positioning.
The market for Pahlavi’s return trades $4,510 in daily USDC volume. The June 30 sub-market requires $9,322 to move the price 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. A one-point drop at 6:16 AM shows that even small trades can move this market.
Traders should watch for further Israeli military actions and any statements from Iranian officials indicating retaliation. Pahlavi’s summit outcomes and any US or EU endorsements of his leadership ambitions will also be key signals.
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Iran Military Action Against April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
